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Sunday, July 11, 2010

Adrien Brody’s PREDATORS Surprises and Disappoints: Box Office

Nimród Antal‘s adventure/thriller Predators, starring Adrien Brody, Topher Grace, Alice Braga, Oleg Taktarov, and Laurence Fishburne was a good surprise for distributor Twentieth Century Fox on Friday, but turned out to be a disappointment of sorts by Sunday.

Predators performed better than expected on Friday, grossing an estimated $10.45m. Could the 2010 reboot of the 1987 John McTiernan-Arnold Schwarzenegger effort gross $30m over the three-day weekend? Would Predators make Academy Award winner Adrien Brody bankableish?

Well, if studio estimates found at Box Office Mojo are accurate, the answers are a) no b) who knows?

Predators took in an estimated $25.3m, after dropping an alarming 18.9% on Saturday and another 24.8% on Sunday. A Saturday drop usually isn’t very good news for a movie’s longevity or overall popularity. Much to the contrary.

For comparison’s sake: The action flick The A-Team grossed $25.6m on its opening weekend (per-theater average: $7,262 at 3,535 sites). After one month it has collected $73.97m.

The good news is that Predators averaged a solid $9,479 per theater — but at 2,669 sites (about 1,800 fewer locations than The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, which averaged $7,475 on its second weekend out). Generally speaking, movies of comparable success will post higher averages if they’re playing at fewer theaters.

Better news: Predators cost about $40m to make. Although at this stage it’s unclear if the adventure flick will earn back its production cost domestically — it’d need to take in about $75m-$80m — it should do so comfortably once worldwide grosses are tallied. And then there are ancillary revenues as well.

Overseas, Predators opened with $18m at 22 territories and 3,094 theaters, according to The Hollywood Reporter The top market was the United Kingdom with $3.5m.
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